NFL Free Agency officially begins March 18th, but the rumors about where players might end up have already started swirling and will continue to ramp up as the day gets closer. This year’s free agent crop is quite bountiful, especially for teams in need of a man under center. There is an unprecedented amount of starting caliber quarterbacks on the market this year, but to be quite honest we could only see a few don new uniforms next season. In fact, that’s the issue I’ll be avoiding when making my predictions. Free agency just isn’t as fun if you’re projecting half the players to re-up with their old squads, so I’ll only include free agents that are more likely than not to change their address this offseason. Since quarterbacks tend to dominate the news, I’ll start off there.
Phillip Rivers
Rivers is almost at his end, but he’s not ready to give up just yet. The 38-year-old spent 16 years as the quarterback for the Chargers, but after a disappointing year for both himself and the team as a whole, the organization decided to part ways with the old man. It’s unfortunate to see a player give so much to a team only to be cut before he can retire there, but maybe there’s still some hope for the vet. Rivers never made a Super Bowl with the Chargers, but now he’s free to sign with a contender who could give him a final chance at the ring his career deserves. After last season it may be hard to believe that Rivers can guide a contender to the promise land, especially as he battles father time. However, Rivers is only a season removed from a year in which he completed 68% of his passes and threw for 32 touchdowns against only 12 interceptions. Rivers, who’s known to be quite fiery, certainly has something left in the tank.
As I mentioned before, Rivers is looking for a team that can reasonably contend with him on the roster. With that qualification in mind, the Indianapolis Colts stand out as a nice fit for Phillip. Indianapolis was expected to contend coming into last season, but a surprising retirement from incumbent quarterback Andrew Luck, derailed those title aspirations. Jacoby Brisset stepped into the starting role and produced unimpressive results. Brisset’s failure to lock down the starting gig has left room for Rivers to join the squad. Rivers old age could present a problem, but the Colts are built to assuage those concerns. Indianapolis owned the seventh best run game and ninth best offensive line in the league last year. Those rankings get more impressive when you couple them with the fact that Brisset’s inability to push the ball down the field led teams to key in on the run more. Rivers, who is a known gunslinger, can bring balance to the Colt’s offense while also shouldering less of a load then he was expected to with the Chargers. Rivers will certainly have options in free agency, but it seems apparent that Indianapolis gives him the best chance to finish his career on a high note.
Teddy Bridgewater
Teddy Bridgewater’s career arc is odd, to say the least. Bridgewater was drafted by the Minnesota Vikings in 2014 and became a solid starter for the team. After his first couple of seasons, Bridgewater was expected to finally lead the Vikings back to the playoffs, but a horrible knee injury prior to the start of the 2016 season kept him out of football for over a year. Once recovered, Bridgewater signed a one-year deal with the New York Jets. Bridgewater only played a few preseason games for the Jets before he was traded to New Orleans. In the Big Easy, Bridgewater served as Drew Brees’ understudy and even started five games after Brees was injured last season. In the limited game action we’ve seen from Bridgewater, it’s become clear that he’s still a viable starter in this league, evidenced most obviously by his 5-0 record as the leading man last year. Now that the Saints have openly acknowledged Taysom Hill as the heir to Brees’ throne, it is time for Bridgewater to find a new home.
Interestingly enough, a good fit for Teddy Two Gloves would be the Los Angeles Chargers. Despite the team’s disappointing 5-11 record last year, they still have the pieces to contend. Several of the Chargers best players were injured for large chunks of the season. If everyone were healthy, the Chargers would have one of the most complete rosters in the league. It seems that it would be in their best interest to enter win-now mode, which would eliminate the desire to draft and groom a quarterback. Instead the team can sign Bridgewater, who is actually only 27 years old himself. Rivers struggled with turnovers last year, much to the Chargers’ detriment. Bridgewater on the other hand, is one of the most turnover averse quarterbacks in the league. In his five games last season, Bridgewater’s interception percentage was a whopping 1%, he tossed nine scores compared to only two picks. Pairing Bridgewater’s decision making with the offensive weapons the Chargers have in Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekler, seems like a recipe for an explosive and efficient offense. After all he’s been through, Bridgewater deserves a chance to shine, Los Angeles gives him the perfect opportunity.
Chris Jones
Chris Jones seems to be the prize of free agency for any team not looking for a quarterback, and for good reason. Jones is the type of player than can fit on literally any team. In Kansas City, Jones primarily played defensive tackle, but is perfectly capable of playing defensive end in a 3-4 scheme. He’s solid against the run, but really makes his name as an interior pass rusher. Last year Jones had nine sacks, an impressive number that looks even better when you realize that he only played 13 games and dealt with multiple injuries throughout the season. The year prior, Jones amassed a grand total of 15.5 sacks through a full 16 game slate. That type of interior rushing ability is rare in this league. Aaron Donald is the only other interior rusher to match those kinds of numbers, and he’s considered to be the best defensive player in the league. Add in the fact that Jones is only 25 years old, and it’s easy to see why he’s considered free agency’s big fish.
What’s interesting about Jones is that he’s openly stated that he wants to stay in Kansas City, after all he did just win a Super Bowl there, but he seems to have priced himself out of their budget. Kansas City only has $16 millon in cap space and has to save some for the inevitable mega-deal that star quarterback Patrick Mahomes is going to demand. Meanwhile, pass rushers like Jones typically sign deals around the $20 million range. A tag and trade should be a move the Chiefs look into, it’s something they pulled last year when they sent Dee Ford to the 49ers in exchange for a second-round draft pick. Perhaps the Chiefs could send Jones to another NFC west team. The Seattle Seahawks are in great need of pass rushers after only generating 28 sacks last year. Incumbent defensive tackle, Jarran Reed, is also a free agent this year, and after garnering 10.5 sacks for the Hawks in 2018, that number fell to only two sacks this year. Seattle could upgrade at the position by trading their first-round selection to the Chiefs in exchange for Jones. Seattle typically tends to trade their first pick anyway; they’ve done so for the past eight years. Not to mention, these two teams swapped a pass rusher for picks just last year when Seattle traded Frank Clark to Kansas City in exchange for several picks. Combine the two team’s needs with their familiarity, and it does seem likely that Chris Jones will be on his way to Seattle.
A.J. Green
Last season was an off year for A.J. Green, literally. An ankle injury that was only supposed to keep Green out for a couple weeks, ended up keeping him out the entire year. Green likely could’ve returned at some point, but simply saw no reason to rejoin a Cincinnati squad that went 2-14 last year. Instead, Green sat out in order to ensure his health for the 2020 season. Green is 31 years old, meaning this is likely his last opportunity to sign a large contract, and after playing for such a mediocre Cincinnati team for so many years, he might also want to sign with a team that can actually compete. When healthy, Green is a true number one receiver, he can stretch the field and thanks to his 6’4” height he can also win 50/50 balls. Green has topped 1,000 yards in six of his eight seasons and has averaged 14.8 yards per reception throughout his career. Teams in need of a top dog receiver are sure to look Green’s way come March 18th.
The Buffalo Bills just might happen to be that team. Last offseason the Bills attempted to acquire former NFL wide receiver Antonio Brown to be their number one option. Brown didn’t end up joining the team, and in retrospect it looks like the Bills dodged a bullet. However, Buffalo still needed a number one option for young signal caller Josh Allen to throw to. The team decided to sign John Brown, who went on to have a productive 1,060-yard season. Despite that solid production, Brown still doesn’t profile as a team’s X receiver. Bringing in Green would give Allen the perfect target to throw to. Green is still a downfield threat, much like Brown, but he can also make up for Allen’s inconsistent throwing accuracy. It’s easy to imagine the canon-armed Allen throwing bombs downfield to the big bodied A.J. Green for huge chunk plays. I’m sure that image is somewhere in the mind of the Bills’ organization, and I’d bet that they hope to make it a reality.
Byron Jones
The Dallas Cowboys have a lot of talent to re-sign this offseason, it doesn’t appear that they’ll be able to keep everyone in house. With quarterback Dak Prescott looking for a mega-deal and wide receiver Amari Cooper also up for a new contract, it seems that Byron Jones would be the odd man out. Jones isn’t the biggest free agent name out there, he’s not even the most well-known Jones, but he is a solid defensive back who has shown some versatility in coverage. Jones started his career as a safety and has transitioned to more of a cornerback role but has been moved around the defense at times. Jones has shown that he’s a better corner, but the added versatility of knowing how to play the safety spot is valuable. In his two years primarily playing corner, Jones has allowed a 52.8% completion percentage on balls thrown his way, while also allowing only five touchdowns. Jones doesn’t have gaudy interception numbers, but he’s clearly shown that he’s capable of being a team’s number one cover man.
After getting absolutely torched by Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs in the playoffs last season, it’s become clear that the Houston Texans are a team in need of Jones’ services. Houston’s defense as a whole ranked 19th in the league, the pass defense in particular was quite porous. The Texans allowed opponents to throw for 4,276 yards and 33 touchdowns on a 64% completion percentage, all while only picking off 12 balls. The playoff game against Mahomes and the Chiefs exposed Houston’s secondary on a national level. After going up 24-0, the Texans ended up losing the game with a final score of 31-51. Mahomes finished the day with 321 passing yards and 5 touchdowns in an incredible comeback effort. Three of the Texans top cornerbacks are hitting free agency this offseason. Given their performance last season, it looks to be in Houston’s best interest to cut bait with them and upgrade at the position by signing Byron Jones.
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