The Wild West and the Eighth Seed

And we’re back! After a fourth month hiatus, the NBA has finally returned. The league and all its stars have convened in Orlando, Florida to resume the season and name a champion. First off, as a fan, I would like to thank everyone who made this possible. The logistics of a sports league returning to play in the Coronavirus era are complicated (take a look at the MLB), but the NBA seems to have put together a solid plan. The “bubble” system keeps everyone in a safe COVID free environment by minimizing player and team travel, quarantining anyone who enters the bubble from the outside, and frequently testing everyone involved. It remains to be seen if this system will work for the duration of the season, but the early results are promising.

I’d also like to shoutout the players and the league for doing what they can to keep attention on the Black Lives Matter movement. A return to sports could be seen as a distraction for most people at a time when we should be fighting against social injustice. The momentum that has been built up behind the BLM movement and against systemic racism, police brutality, and other racial issues that plague our society, cannot be squandered. The players have frequently addressed social injustice in interviews and wear BLM related messages on their uniforms and shoes; all in an effort to keep a foot on the gas and not let the fans at home forget what they should be fighting for.

Ok, that was a lot so let’s get to some actual basketball. The league has invited 22 teams to the bubble to play eight regular season games before the start of the playoffs. The 16 teams that will enter the postseason are mostly set. The one spot that could be up for grabs is the eighth seed in the Western Conference, currently owned by the Memphis Grizzlies. In order to steal the spot, all the ninth seeded team has to do is be within four games back of the eighth. This unlocks a mini playoff series between the two were the ninth seed must beat the eighth twice to advance to the postseason, while the eighth seed only has to win once to retain their spot. The NBA has invited five western conference teams who are out of the playoffs to compete for the eighth seed, realistically only two have a chance. I’ll start with New Orleans.

New Orleans Pelicans

If you’ve watched basketball at all in the past year you probably know about Zion Williamson. The 20-year-old is one of the most exciting players in the league. He’s become a media darling and seems to be the heir to Lebron James throne. All this seems like a lot for someone who’s only played in 20 NBA games, but so far he hasn’t disappointed. Through 20 games Zion is averaging 23 points per game on 59% shooting, that combo of scoring and efficiency is rare to see in rookies. Putting that type of player on a Pelicans team that already features a talented mix of veterans like Jrue Holiday (19.6 PPG), and youngsters like Brandon Ingram (24.2 PPG), makes the roster downright scary. It feels like if this version of the Pelicans would have played the whole season, they’d be in the playoffs.

Unfortunately, that isn’t the case. New Orleans is three and a half games back of the Grizzlies and currently hold the 11^th seed. The team also now only has seven games to try to take hold of the ninth spot after losing to the Utah Jazz on the first night of regular season return. Williamson played sparingly in that game due to a lack of conditioning, this meant he missed out on the final  seven minutes of the game. When you have a player as talented as Zion who is coming off of four months rest it would make sense to play him at the end of a close game, even if he had already surpassed a minute restriction. Williamson’s presence in the paint keeps the offense consistent and defenses honest, without him the Pelicans are more susceptible to going cold like they did against the Jazz in the fourth quarter. The Pelicans need to have more urgency here. They have the easiest schedule of all the bubble teams which certainly helps, but there’s still ground to make up and the time to do so is waning. If the Pelicans unleash Zion, the offense will be explosive and hard to keep up with. Sure, their defense is inconsistent at times, but this would still be a playoff caliber team.

In the end I just don’t think we’ll get to see playoff Zion, especially if the Pelicans continue to limit his minutes. As mentioned, there are only seven games left for them and they still have to leap frog the Spurs and TrailBlazers to reach the ninth seed. The latter of which might not budge.

Portland TrailBlazers

The pressure is on in the West, the playoff race is close and the season is about to end. You could say it’s the fourth quarter of the regular season, it’s clutch time, it’s Dame time. Damian Lillard is known for making huge shots, he’s also known for carrying offenses. He’s had to do so a lot this season. Portland’s roster had been marred by injuries, leaving the All-Star point guard to shoulder the load. Lillard has averaged 28.9 points and 7.8 assists per game and gotten his team to the ninth seed. Now he’ll get some reinforcements.

The NBA hiatus gave a lot of players time to rest and rehab from injuries. That includes Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins. Nurkic was out for pretty much the whole season with a leg injury he sustained the season prior. Collins injured his shoulder back in November and was said to be out for the next four months. Now the two starters are back, healthy and ready to go. Portland is a very different team with these two big men in the fold. Over the course of the season Portland ranks 27^th in defensive rating. Their lead guard duo of Lillard and CJ McCollum are great scorers, but unimpressive defensively. Nurkic is a strong presence in the paint, he protects the rim and rebounds the ball well. He’ll be able to stabilize the defense, allowing it to better compliment an offense that has the 7^th best rating in the league. Nurkic isn’t too shabby on the offensive end either, he averaged 15.6 points and 3.2 assists per game before he went down last season. Collins isn’t great defensively, but he’s another big body and does have some offensive potential. Having more scorers is never a bad thing. Collins and Nurkic’s return also allows Hassan Whiteside to come off the bench. As a starter, Whiteside was iffy, but he’ll be much more valuable in a reserve role.

All this will help Lillard in his quest to capture the eighth seed. During initial talks regarding the resumption of the season, Lillard said he did not want to play unless his team had a chance to make the playoffs. Well the NBA gave him eight games, it seems like that just might be enough. In their first regular season game the TrailBlazers beat the very team they’re trying to replace. Portland bested Memphis 135-140 in a close overtime finish. They moved up to two and a half games back of the Grizzlies, comfortably within the four game range needed to unlock the mini-series. Portland has the fifth hardest schedule of the remaining teams, but this squad looks up to the challenge. I believe that once postseason play starts, the eighth seed will belong to Portland.