The opening round of the NBA playoffs is set. After eight seeding games and a play-in tournament, we now know which teams will square off in round one. We’ve got some really interesting match-ups, and of course some total snoozers. In order to keep things short, I’ll go ahead and tell you now that Milwaukee and Toronto are going to advance. As the one seed in the East, the Bucks will play the Orlando Magic, a team without two of its best defenders in Aaron Gordon and Jonathan Isaac. They simply do not have an answer for Giannis Antetokounmpo. Meanwhile the Raptors will face a Brooklyn Nets squad that barely resembles the team that stepped on the court during the regular season. Sure, the band of misfits has played some inspired basketball. They pulled off a historical upset by beating the Milwaukee Bucks 119-116, but they won’t be able to catch that kind of lightning in a bottle over the course of a seven-game series. With those two cakewalks out of the way, let’s start calling some real match-ups.
(Side note: for the sake of this article’s length I will be keeping my analysis relatively brief.)
Philadelphia 76ers v Boston Celtics
At the outset of the season if you told the 76ers they got to play Boston in the first round of the playoffs, they’d be giddy. A lot has changed since then. Philadelphia’s super-sized roster proved to be clunky on offense and nowhere near the defensive juggernaut they expected to be. Their bad situation got worse when Ben Simmons went down for the season with a subluxation in his left patella. Still, the 76ers have the best center in the league in Joel Embiid, and he should be plenty capable of dominating a smaller Boston team. However, it might not be enough. Though Philly’s offense might have better spacing with Simmons out, they are still going to miss his ability to push the ball in transition and create shots for others. Boston has too much fire power and sit as the fourth best offensive rating the in NBA. The 76ers have other options like Tobias Harris and Josh Richardson, but those two don’t have the all-star scoring abilities that Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Kemba Walker have. It’ll be a close series for sure, but the 76ers fall just a little too short offensively to come out on top.
Boston in 7
Indiana Pacers v Miami Heat
The highlight of this series will obviously be TJ Warren going up against Jimmy Butler. The two got into a scuffle during the regular season. Butler, an All-Star, claimed that Warren was “trash”. At the time Jimmy was probably right, after eight seeding games in the bubble, maybe not so much. TJ Warren has been a scoring machine in Orlando, he has averaged 23.3 points per game since playing in the bubble. Warren’s scoring burst lifts the expectations for a Pacers team that has been without its best player, Domantas Sabonis. One thing to note however is that in the bubble matchup between the Heat and Pacers, Warren was held to only 12 points. If Warren can’t put up gaudy numbers the Pacers might be in trouble, other than TJ their scoring options are limited. Victor Oladipo is still trying to find his rhythm, and Malcolm Brogdon isn’t exactly a bucket getter. With Miami housing defenders like Butler, Jae Crowder, and Bam Adebayo, the Pacers might have a hard time putting the ball in the basket. That’s something Miami won’t have as much of a problem with as one of the best three-point shooting teams in the league. Miami also has solid scoring options coming off the bench, like Goran Dragic and Tyler Herro. The Heat’s defense and depth might prove to be the difference.
Miami in 6
Portland TrailBlazers v Los Angeles Lakers
Portland officially became the eighth seed when they beat the Memphis Grizzlies 126-122 in the Western Conference play-in game. Now they’re facing off against the one seeded Lakers in what will be the most interesting 1-v-8 matchup in some time. Portland has been a different team in the bubble, thanks to the return of Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins. The TrailBlazers have gone 7-2 in their bubble games, relying a lot on Damian Lillard’s MVP type performance. If they can upset the Lakers it’ll be because of Lillard’s heroics yet again. The Lakers have been a disappointment in the bubble, they’ve gone 3-5 and are last or near the bottom in multiple shooting categories. The absence of Avery Bradley Jr. and Rajon Rondo has forced the Lakers to turn to Alex Caruso and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope for more production, things haven’t worked out. The lack of serviceable guard play from the Lakers will hurt them against one of the best backcourts in the NBA. Lillard and McCollum are two all-star scorers who can take advantage of their unimpressive matchup. It will be the TrailBlazers inability to matchup with Lebron and Anthony Davis, that will decide this series though. Portland is without Rodney Hood and Trevor Ariza, two wings who they’d surely like to throw out against King James. The star duos will get to duke it out against their bad matchups, but the Lakers will prevail.
Lakers in 6
Dallas Mavericks v Los Angeles Clippers
This year’s Western Conference playoffs is absolutely stacked. This series is proof. The Dallas Mavericks have the best offensive rating in the league and are still only the seventh seed. Second year guard Luka Doncic has been sensational this year. He is the catalyst that makes Dallas’ offense go. He plays the game at his own pace and has a remarkable ability to find open teammates. His court vision is already in the same tier as the likes of Lebron James and James Harden. The combination of Doncic and big man Kristaps Porzingis is lethal offensively, especially due to the latter’s ability to knock down long range shots. The issue is this team is playing a Clippers squad that has the second best offensive rating and the fifth best defensive rating. The trio of Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and Patrick Beverly is probably the best group you can put together to guard Doncic on the perimeter. A silver lining for the Mavs is that the Clippers don’t have an elite rim protector. Ivica Zubac has been more than serviceable as a center, but he’s nowhere near the level of Porzingis. That could allow the Mavs to steal a game or two, but it won’t be enough in a seven game series against arguably the most talented team in the league.
Clippers in 6
Utah Jazz v Denver Nuggets
Two of the best centers in the league will go head to head in this matchup. Nikola Jokic is an offensive czar at the five spot. His ability to create offense for others and score the ball himself, makes him a true point forward. Rudy Gobert on the other hand is a former defensive player of the year who looks to put the clamps on the “Joker”. Gobert’s unreal size and length make him an elite rim defender. The result of their duel will likely be the difference in who wins the series. Utah will be without both Bojan Bogdanavic and Mike Conley, two of the team’s top scorers. Their absence increases the offensive load on Gobert and Donavan Mitchell. The only way the Jazz will be able to keep up with the Nuggets is if Gobert can effectively contain Jokic. That task will prove to be too tall, even for the “Stifle Tower”. Jokic effects the game in too many ways for Gobert to properly contain him, not to mention the Nuggets have loads of fire power. Even with Gary Harris and Will Barton out with injuries, Denver employs Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr. and Paul Millsap. Utah’s roster is just too diminished to keep up, they’ve seem to run out of ammo at the worst time.
Denver in 5
Oklahoma City Thunder v Houston Rockets
There’s a bit of a built in storyline to this series thanks to a certain offseason transaction between these two teams. Last summer the Houston Rockets traded Chris Paul to the Oklahoma City Thunder in exchange for Russell Westbrook. The trade was meant to be a slight shakeup for Houston, while OKC and Chris Paul would be left to figure out their futures. Fast forward to today and the two organizations meet again. The Rockets will be without Paul’s trade counterpart as Westbrook will miss at least part of the series with a quad injury. The “Point God” will certainly take advantage of Westbrook’s absence by keying in on James Harden, Houston’s other All-Star guard. The Thunder certainly have a lot of bodies to throw at Harden, Paul is a former All-Defensive team member, Lou Dort is hound on the stopping end, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s length should bother Harden too. Harden, arguably the best scorer in the league, will have his hands quite full. Things get worse when you throw in the fact that Steven Adams will likely pummel a Rockets team that doesn’t deploy a traditional center. The difference will come from deep. Houston may be a bit short handed, but their ability to launch and hit shots from three-point range keeps them in any game. If Houston can shoot well enough, they’ll be able to take the Thunder down. If not, then their chances don’t look so bright.
Houston in 7
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