NFL Wild Card Predictions

The NFL playoffs is finally here, the league managed to make it seventeen weeks without having to cancel a game or add a week eighteen to the schedule like some have suggested. In the terrible year that was 2020, that’s a huge accomplishment. The league certainly had it’s mishaps, most notably in week twelve when the Broncos were forced to play with Kendall Hinton at quarterback instead of postponing the game like they did with Baltimore’s Wednesday afternoon affair that was initially scheduled for Thanksgiving. However, nobody is perfect and you at least kind of have to respect the NFL’s dedication to their schedule. One cool caveat of this topsy-turvy season is that at least one NFL game was played on every day of the week for the first time ever.

All that aside, let’s hop into these playoff matchups. The new seventh seed this year means that there are now six wild card games, and each of them has a lot of potential. The Cleveland Browns made the playoffs for the first time in what feels like forever, Tom Brady will play in the Wild Card round against a 7-9 team, we get to see Ravens v. Titans III, and that’s just half of the games. So let’s start picking ’em.

Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills are absolutely rolling right now. They’ve notched double digit wins in their last six games and get to host a playoff game in Buffalo for the first time in 25 years. Josh Allen and the offense has looked electric. Allen’s ability to run the ball and even be physical as a runner made him a playmaker before 2020, but each week this season Allen has made throws that remind you of the league’s best quarterback, Patrick Mahomes, and that has allowed the Bills offense to be incredibly dynamic. Allen’s progression as a passer has helped make the Bills arguably the most complete team in the league. They’ve had little trouble dispatching inferior teams which is always a good sign, and they’ve won some games against other playoff teams like the Steelers and Seahawks.

However, the Indianapolis Colts should not be taken lightly. The Colts are also a very balanced team. They feature a strong rushing attack led by rookie running back Jonathan Taylor and a stout defense with playmakers like Deforest Buckner and Darius Leonard. The one potential weakness for Indianapolis is Philip Rivers. Rivers has been playing very efficient football this season, but his arm strength is clearly fading with age and that really limits the Colt’s big play ability. If Indianapolis wants to win this game then they’ll have to be perfect. Rivers can not turn the ball over and the defense must limit Josh Allen’s downfield passes. The Bills defense has played well down the stretch, but they haven’t seen a team that can run the ball like the Colts in a while (New England is too one dimensional to really be considered here). The Colts have the eleventh best run game in the league and average 124.8 rushing yards per game. The Bills are 5-3 when they give up 100 rushing yards, but their wins came against the Patriots (twice), the Jets and the Rams, while their loses came against better teams like the Chiefs, Titans and Cardinals. If the Colts can dominate the ground game and control the clock, then they have a chance. The problem is, the Colts have a small margin for error while the Bills’ explosiveness can get them out of some sticky situations. Ultimately, it would seem fitting for such an odd season that the hottest team going into the post-season would get upset in the first round, so that’s what we’re going with.

Colts win 27-24

Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks

This game will be the second time these two teams meet in the past three weeks and the third time they’ll meet this season. That familiarity matters for the Rams because they’ll likely have backup John Wolford under center instead of Jared Goff. Los Angeles knows that all it has to do to stay in this game is keep the turnovers low. The Rams are the best defense in the league with blue chippers like Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey leading the way. They’ve already proven capable of clamping down a Seahawks offense that has looked out of rhythm for a while now. If L.A. can keep this game close and ugly they could win. However, Wolford will undoubtedly be forced to outplay Russell Wilson at some point in this game and I’m not quite sure he’s capable of that.

Wilson is a playoff tested quarterback who has been here before. In fact, Russell Wilson has missed the post-season only once in his career. The Rams defense has played great all season, but Wilson has proved that he can make plays when he needs to. Seattle failed to score a touchdown in the first half of their last two games, but managed to get things together by the second half and pulled out wins in each. If this game gets close, Wilson will likely prove once again why he’s one of the best quarterbacks in the league.

Seahawks win 24-14

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ The Washington Football Team

Congratulations to The Washington Football Team for making the playoffs. They’ll get to host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at FedEx Field after finishing the season with a 7-9 record and the NFC East division title. The last two seven–win playoff teams actually managed to win their first playoff game, and there is a recipe for Washington to follow suit. The main game plan for the Football Team has to start with pressuring Tom Brady. Brady and the Bucs have been at their worst when opposing defenses can get in Brady’s face and make him feel uncomfortable. Most of the prime-time games the Bucs have played this season featured teams using that strategy to force Brady to turn the ball over. It’s worked out, as the Bucs own a 1-3 record in those prime-time affairs.

Washington has the personnel capable of bringing the heat. Their defensive line consists of five first round picks, the most talented being Chase Young, the second overall pick in the 2020 draft. In his first year, Young has led a Washington defense that just about carried their team into the playoffs. He’ll have to carry even more if he wants to win this game. Like the Rams, Washington will have to stick to a grittier style of play because if the Bucs get up early, Washington won’t have the firepower to come back. Unfortunately for Young, that’ll likely be the case. The Bucs offense has looked better lately and the Tampa Bay defense is a top ten unit. Washington just doesn’t have the weapons.

(Although the time of the game may not actually matter, it is worth noting that the Bucs game is scheduled for Saturday night, does the prime-time bug strike the Bucs again?)

Buccaneers win 24-15

Baltimore Ravens @ Tennessee Titans

Before covering the actual game, I must make one thing clear: these teams do not like each other. Ravens v Titans has become an emerging rivalry ever since the Titans upset the Ravens in last year’s playoffs. The Titans controlled that game the whole way through and it was all thanks to running back Derrick Henry. Henry absolutely bulldozed the Ravens to a meme-worthy degree. Ever since then, reigning MVP Lamar Jackson has had to face more questions about his ability to pass the ball and play in the clutch. The Ravens were hoping to exercise those demons coming into their week 11 rematch this season. Though the game was much closer the second time around, Derrick Henry was still the difference. Henry barreled 29 yards down the field for a game winning touchdown in overtime.

Hopefully the third installment of this rivalry is just as intriguing as the other two. It likely will be because these two teams stack up well against each other. The Titans have been getting shredded on defense lately, they’ve given up over thirty points in each of their last two games. However, Baltimore isn’t built to exploit those weaknesses. Tennessee is a bottom five pass defense, but more in the middle of the pack in terms of run defense. Lamar makes his money by running the ball and has shown some weakness as a passer. That mitigates how bad the Titans secondary has been playing, because Lamar likely won’t look to challenge them downfield all day. Tennessee is also terrible at getting pressure, but that might not matter against Lamar. Jackson is at his best when he can improvise and get out of the pocket, Tennessee’s “mush rush” does a better job of keeping escape lanes filled meaning that Lamar would have to beat the Titans from within the pocket. Tennessee is going to force Jackson to beat them with his arm, so far he hasn’t been up to the task. However, the third time might just be the charm. Lamar is out for revenge, and the entire Ravens team has to be seething after dropping the last two games to Tennessee. Derrick Henry will likely still have a big game, but the Titans just haven’t looked great these past few weeks. If Lamar truly has grown as a passer, then he should be able to take advantage of Tennessee.

Ravens win 21-20

Chicago Bears @ New Orleans Saints

New Orleans comes into this game sporting a 12-4 record and the number two seed in the NFC. That all sounds great, but the Saints have looked just a bit unimpressive the whole season. At 41 years of age, Drew Brees is showing the effects of aging. His deep ball hasn’t been there consistently for the Saints and that has forced them to play very methodically on offense. New Orleans plays a turnover free style of football that includes a lot of shorter passes and plenty of touches for running back Alvin Kamara. However, Kamara’s status for the game is still up in the air due to the fact that he recently tested positive for COVID-19. Even if Kamara was able to go, he likely wouldn’t be as conditioned as normal and that could affect his play. Without their top weapon, the Saints become a bit more vulnerable than they already appear. The good news is, Michael Thomas is expected to play this week, so Brees should have at least one receiver he can trust.

The Bears defense hasn’t been as good this year as seasons past, but they still have pass rusher Khalil Mack and a few other playmakers. Chicago has to rattle Brees to have a chance, if they let him sit back there then he’ll pick them apart, but if they can hit Brees and make him uncomfortable this could be a close ball game. The Bears have been playing well lately despite a loss last week to Green Bay, which gives me hope. The concern for Chicago is that Mitchell Trubisky will have to put up points against a very complete Saints defense. New Orleans is tied for third in the league in total turnovers this season; prior to his recent hot streak, Trubisky was known to be prone to giving the other team the ball. Like the Seahawks v Rams game, this will likely come down to the difference between the men under center. Drew Brees has been playing great football for the past decade, while Mitchell Trubisky has been playing well for the past five weeks.

Saints win 21-17

Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers

These two division rivals actually just met in Cleveland this past week. Now, they’ll meet again in Pittsburgh. Last weeks game ended with a final score of 24-22, which was way closer than it should’ve been. Cleveland was fighting for their playoff lives while Pittsburgh rested multiple starters including quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and potential Defensive Player of the Year, T.J. Watt. Even without Watt, the Steelers were able to put pressure on Baker Mayfield, which is when he’s at his worst. Things won’t get better for Mayfield once Watt is on the field. To make things even worse, Cleveland’s head coach and offensive play caller, Kevin Stefanski, will miss the game after testing positive for COVID-19. That means that Baker will have to get used to the rhythm of a new play caller, and Mayfield is very much a rhythm quarterback. If he struggles early it might get ugly for the Browns.

Cleveland’s secondary also got torched by backup quarterback, Mason Rudolph. Rudolph went 22/39 for 315 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. Cleveland’s pass defense has been a weak spot all season and it reared it’s ugly head in last week’s game. A rested and much more experienced Roethlisberger should be able to pick apart the Brown’s secondary with success. Although Pittsburgh has become a bit predictable on offense, the last couple of weeks have offered signs of improvement. In their comeback win over the Colts two weeks ago, Pittsburgh started to let the deep ball fly and that opened up a lot of things for them offensively. Some have speculated that the Steelers continued to throw shorter quick passes to ensure that the 38-year-old Roethlisberger made it to the playoffs. Well they’re here now, and Ben has shown that he still has a little gunslinger left in him. It’s time for the Steelers to take the safety off.

Steelers win 28-13