The NFL’s first “Super Wild Card Weekend” went extremely well. Some things went as expected; Mitchell Trubisky reverted back to the bust we all know and love, Lamar won his first playoff game and the Bucs handled Washington. However, there were also some surprises; the Rams upset Seattle without competent quarterback play, and the Browns demolished the Steelers.
If you read my article last week you’d know that my predictions went 3-3. I did manage to predict the correct score in the Colts v Bills game though, but not the right winner. Still, I’ll take it.
Unfortunately for NFL fans, the rest of the playoff schedule is unchanged from season’s past, so this week we’ll be returning to the normal four game slate. Luckily, each contest has the chance to be really entertaining. The Rams defense looks to continue their run by shutting down the probable league MVP, two dynamic up-and-coming quarterbacks who just won their first playoff game meet to try to collect their second and two forty-something year old vets will duel in New Orleans to prove who’s still got it. Without further ado, the picks.
Los Angeles Rams @ Green Bay Packers
As some of my readers may know, I’m a Seattle Seahawks fan, so last week’s game was incredibly hard to watch. The Rams came to play and were ready with a solid game plan defensively. They managed to keep the game close, and unlike what I predicted, Russell Wilson was unable to work his late game magic. What’s frustrating from a fan standpoint was that it was clear that Jared Goff was uncomfortable in the pocket and probably shouldn’t have played. Yet somehow, Russell and the offense could not get anything going at all offensively to take advantage of that.
The fact that Goff never turned the ball over should be encouraging for Rams fans. Sean McVay has proven that he can take absolutely mediocre quarterback play and turn it into a win. Of course McVay is able to do this in part because he has an amazing defense. Los Angeles owns the best defense in the league, and shutting down Seattle the way they did proved that. Green Bay’s offense is a little more consistent, but the Rams should be able to keep them in check. Aaron Donald suffered a rib injury last week that caused some concern about his availability, but he’s set to play come Saturday.
What this game really comes down to though is one on-field matchup. Jalen Ramsey will attempt to shut down Davante Adams the way he’s already shut down receivers like D.K. Metcalf and Deandre Hopkins. If Ramsey is successful, then a huge part of the Packer’s offense will be gone. Aaron Rodgers is the likely league MVP and can make any receiver look good, but his connection with Adams is electric and extremely important to Green Bay’s offense as a whole. Adams averages just over 10 targets and 98 receiving yards per game, it’ll be a lot harder to reach those numbers with Ramsey on his back. Opposing defenses usually have to worry about the threat of Adams, but with the Rams trusting Ramsey to cover him alone, the rest of their defense can key in on other aspects of the Packer’s attack. This puts a lot of pressure on Rodgers to create with some of the other, less trustworthy pieces on the roster like the much maligned Marquez-Valdez Scantling.
In order for the Rams to come out with a win, the game will have to look a lot like last week: run the ball, play defense, don’t turn it over. However, Seattle had so many chances to take over and win, they were just never able to capitalize. I’m not sure the Rams can keep counting on the other team’s offense not to show up.
Packers win 24-17
Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills
Lamar Jackson finally got his first playoff win last week against the Titans, but it wasn’t with his arm. Jackson stayed true to form and used his game breaking speed to take off for a huge 48 yard touchdown run that proved to be the difference against the Titans. This week he’ll get to face fellow class of 2018 quarterback, Josh Allen, who also just earned his first career playoff win. The two young signal callers have been playing out of their minds lately, which means that this game will have to be won by the pieces around them.
The matchups favor Baltimore and their dynamic rushing attack. Last week, the Bills were bullied on the ground to the tune of 164 rushing yards. The Colts had a few big runs that kept them in the game and allowed them to have a chance to win late. Unfortunately for them, Philip Rivers was unable to seal the deal. Baltimore is the best running team in the league which means they’ll probably dominate the trenches Saturday night. Jackson’s athleticism will make matters worse for Buffalo. In the Bill’s week ten game against the Arizona Cardinals, Kyler Murray (a quarterback with a similar skillset), ran for 61 yards and two scores.
On the other side of the ball, Baltimore’s defense has been playing well lately. They limited Derrick Henry to 40 rushing yards last week, forcing the Titans to play one dimensional football. Buffalo’s run game is no where near as dominant as Tennessee’s, making it even easier to take that part of their offense away. The Bills haven’t been very impressive on the ground all season, but it hasn’t mattered because of how electric Allen has been. Even if Buffalo is able to have early success offensively, it’d be harder for them to protect a lead without being able to run the ball effectively. Allen had to do pretty much everything for the Bills last week and they still almost came up short. If he doesn’t get more help this week, then Buffalo might be in trouble.
Ravens win 30-24
Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs
The Cleveland Browns absolutely stunned the Pittsburgh Steelers last week on the way to their first playoff victory since 1994. The Steelers looked unprepared from the jump. Their first offensive play was a botched snap that turned into a Cleveland touchdown. Pittsburgh wasn’t able to get much going after that as Roethlisberger threw a few bad interceptions that put the team in a hole. Cleveland overcame a lot of adversity to get the win; their coach, guard, and top corner were unable to be at the game last week due to COVID-19 protocols. However, it does feel similar to the Rams game in that the better team completely failed to show up. Baker Mayfield made some great throws to build the early lead and Kareem Hunt was running really hard, but it still felt like Pittsburgh just gave this one away.
If Kansas City somehow starts off as poorly as Pittsburgh did, they might still be able to come back because of how explosive their offense can be. That’s exactly why Cleveland’s recipe for success involves keeping Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City offense off the field. The Browns are the third best rushing team in the league and feature the dynamic duo of Hunt and Nick Chubb. The rushing attack is the life blood of Cleveland’s offense, it opens up so many things for Mayfield in the play-action pass game, allowing him to build confidence and rhythm. What it also does is kill clock, giving Cleveland control over the flow of the game. The Browns should be able to have their way on the ground since Kansas City ranks 21st in terms of run defense.
The trouble with the Chiefs is that even if you do control the clock, their offense can score so quickly that it may not matter. Sunday should be no different. Kansas City’s passing game is tops in the league while Cleveland’s pass defense is 22nd. The stats would suggest that both offenses should be able to do what they do best, and if that’s the case, I’m not picking against the reigning Super Bowl MVP.
Chiefs win 32-28
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints
The Saints have dominated this matchup thus far this season. The first time these two teams met was in week one. Brady and the Bucs really struggled offensively, Brady even threw a pick six. At the time, the belief was that the truncated off-season hurt a Bucs team that was introducing Brady to their system. However, a week nine rematch was even more lopsided with a final score of 38-3. Tampa Bay somehow looked even more out of sync than their week one showing. They only managed to not be shut out by scoring a field goal late in the fourth quarter. Based on these last two meetings, it would appear that the Saints have the Bucs number this season. What’s happened since those games will be the difference Sunday night.
The week after their second matchup, Drew Brees took a sack against the San Francisco 49ers and suffered a rib injury that forced him out for the next month. Brees has looked solid in his return, but the Saints certainly feel different. New Orleans’s offense was stuck in neutral for much of their game last week against the Bears. If they hadn’t been playing Mitchell Trubisky, they could’ve lost. If Brees struggles to get his team out of the mud again, then Brady will surely take advantage.
That’s because the Bucs have been rolling lately. They’ve gone undefeated since their week thirteen bye and that streak has been powered by an offense that’s really starting to click. Tampa Bay scored at least thirty points in four of those five wins. The competition was a little soft, but last week’s 31-23 win came over a Washington defense that was a top five unit. The fact that Washington was able to put up 23 points could be a bit concerning, but Taylor Heinicke played out of his mind and made a lot of plays with his legs, that won’t be an issue with Brees under center. Sure, Sean Payton will undoubtedly mix Taysom Hill into the offensive game plan in order to have a running threat at quarterback, but it won’t be the same. It’s incredibly hard for one team to beat another three times in one season, last week’s shaky performance makes me think the Saints aren’t up to the task.
Buccaneers win 27-23
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