XDog's Sports Blog

The NBA’s Most Daring Experiment: The Houston Rockets

The NBA is always changing, always evolving, as teams find new ways to win. They forge into the unknown in search of some competitive advantage that they hope will bring them to the forefront of the league. Over the past decade NBA teams have changed in two notable ways. First, the three-point shot has become extremely valuable, because well, three is more than two, but also because it’s a much more efficient shot than the once beloved post-up or mid-range options. Secondly, the NBA has become increasingly position-less. Initially there were five positions: point guard, shooting guard, small forward, power forward and center. Each came with specific roles to play that defined the position, and each was usually demarcated by height.

However, today’s NBA has brought about Lebron James, Ben Simmons, Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, etc. What these players have in common is that they all physically fit in the position of forward or center but take on primary ball handling and scoring roles that would usually be designated to a guard. While not everyone has a player of that caliber, as they are quite unique, the mucking up of traditional positions has begun. The combination of these two changes has led to the rise of an NBA trend dubbed “small ball”.

Small ball has come about due to an increased emphasis on taking efficient shots, three-pointers for example, and a need to defend those shots. Taller players are typically predisposed to posting up close to the basket, using a combination of strength and footwork to score. However, this type of shot just isn’t an efficient way to score for most players. What’s worse for big men, is that they statistically don’t shoot the three as well as their shorter teammates. This leaves the traditional big man to serve as a rebounder and rim protector. Even then a problem can arise.

Most taller players aren’t as agile as their shorter counterparts, which means they have a hard time defending on the perimeter, and with the proliferation of threes, they’re asked to do so more often than ever before. As a result, NBA teams sometimes chose to play small ball lineups that consist of players who are better shooters and/or perimeter defenders. This means that players who would traditionally be classified as forwards, serve as the center while taking on a mix of both roles. Of course, this has its downsides, when playing a smaller lineup, a team’s lack of size can limit their ability to protect the rim and rebound the ball. This is why most teams only chose to implement small ball in doses. Notice how I said most? Well, that’s cause the Houston Rockets are the exception.

Houston has a history of extremism under head coach Mike D’Antoni. D’Antoni wanted to maximize Houston’s offensive efficiency by eliminating the mid-range shot. As a result, the Rockets have led the league in three-point attempts every year since D’Antoni’s arrival. James Harden, the team’s franchise star, has also led the league in isolation plays every year since D’Antoni was put in charge. Thus, it seems fitting that the Rockets are the team to take small ball to the next level.

Over the offseason, the Rockets traded for All-Star guard Russell Westbrook, a longtime friend and former teammate of James Harden. The two played for the Oklahoma City Thunder at the start of their careers, Westbrook was a starter while Harden was the sixth man. Eventually Harden was traded to the Houston Rockets and became the face of the franchise. Now the two friends would be on the same team once again, but with Harden in a more prominent role. The fit was questionable, as both are better with the ball their hands, but that was besides the point. Talent is talent, and since both players have MVP awards on their resume, that’s about as much talent as you can get.

Initially, the team tried to integrate Westbrook into their system, forcing him to jack up treys and spend less time as the primary dribbler. It wasn’t very successful; Westbrook has always shot poorly from distance which in turn makes him less of an off-ball threat. Adding Westbrook’s shooting prowess (or lack thereof) to a lineup that already featured traditional big man Clint Capela, achieved the exact opposite of what Mike D’Antoni wanted out of his offense. There were two non-shooters on the court, and that was a problem. Not to mention Capela’s presence in the paint clogged up driving lanes for Westbrook, who is at his most efficient when he attacks the basket. The talent was there for Houston, they just weren’t using it right. The early fit between Harden and Westbrook proved clunky at best. Something had to change.

Capela had been dealing with a lot of injuries this season, forcing Houston to turn to small ball more often than it initially intended. However, Capela’s absence allowed Houston to see what Westbrook could do with space in the paint. Having Capela out meant that there was only one non-shooter on the court, Westbrook, but his All-Star ability to score in other ways mitigated his inability to hit from deep. His drives became more efficient, and his scoring numbers went up. With this in mind, the Rockets devised a plan to get the most out of their MVP duo.

On February 4^th, the Houston Rockets traded Clint Capela in a four-team deal that landed them 3-and-D wing Robert Covington. Trading their center was a sign that Houston was all in on playing small ball full time. The idea was simple. Surround Westbrook and Harden with shooters that will allow them to drive to the basket and kick out if necessary. That way it doesn’t matter who they kick out to, because everyone who gets minutes can shoot. Except Westbrook of course, but more often than not he’d be the one driving. This five-out approach gives Westbrook and Harden all the space their heart desires, allowing the dynamic duo to pick apart defenses at their disposal. When it comes to who gets the ball between Harden and Westbrook, it’s just a matter of feeding the hot hand, as both are MVPs, and either could go off on a given night. What’s even better for Houston is when they both catch fire.

As I mentioned before, there are downsides to playing this way. The Rockets are the only team taking small ball to this length, which means they still play bigger teams with more traditional centers. Houston’s answer to that issue was to stockpile taller wings, like Covington, who would traditionally be classified as small or power forwards and have them soak up “center” minutes. One player in particular is the reason why the small ball system has worked so far. That player would be P.J. Tucker.

Tucker has a reputation for being a “blue collar” NBA player, a kind of guy who’ll do all the dirty work in order to help his team win. That means Tucker usually defends the oppositions best offensive player, sets screens, and grabs rebounds. Offensively, he takes a back seat and usually waits for Harden or Westbrook to kick out to him for three. His role in the Rockets new system asks him to do a couple of other things. Tucker serves as Houston’s center most of the time he’s on the court, so instead of guarding the best offensive player he’s now tasked with guarding the oppositions big man. There’s also more of an emphasis on him rebounding the ball. Tucker is only 6’5”, most centers fall in the seven-foot range, this might be a problem for some, but Tucker is a gritty player who has shown a willingness to take on the challenge.

Houston isn’t making Tucker do it all on his own though. The Rockets switch a lot on defense, which means anyone has the potential to guard anyone. Yes, even James Harden, whose past defensive woes have become meme worthy. Though, this year Harden has shown some defensive improvement, his stocky frame actually makes him a decent post defender. In fact, the general stockiness of the Houston Rockets as a team allows everyone to at least have a chance when it comes to defending in the paint. Not to mention the frequency at which Houston switches on defense keeps everyone engaged, mix that with a greater emphasis on team rebounding, and every Rocket is sure to stay locked in throughout the course of a game. That may not seem like an issue, but with Harden and Westbrook running so many isolation plays, it can be easy for everyone else on the court to get a little weary-eyed.

Since February 4^th, when the team acquired Covington and fully implemented small ball, the Houston Rockets are 7-3. Their notable wins come against the super-sized Lakers, Utah Jazz home of the stifle tower, and Boston Celtics (twice). Over the 10-game stretch Westbrook is averaging 33.6 points, 5.5 assists and 7.6 rebounds per game. What really matters though is that his field goal percentage has jumped up to 56.3%, a considerable leap compared to his season long average of 47.3%. All of Harden’s general numbers have gone down slightly in that same time frame, but he’s also turning the ball over less, going from 4.4 turnovers per game to averaging 3.8 giveaways in the last 10. Harden’s numbers taking a slight dive was expected anyway, it was the only way to achieve a nice balance with Westbrook.

Ten games is a small sample size, and it is reasonable to doubt the longevity of such a style of play, especially when looking towards the postseason. Afterall, the Rockets have lost the rebounding battle in every game since the experiment’s commencement. What Houston is betting on though is that talent will win out. At times in the playoffs you just need a guy who can go get a bucket, the Rockets have two MVPs who can do just that. They’ve effectively optimized their situation to best suit their stars and are hoping that their potent offense offsets a lack of rebounding and defensive ability. It is quite the gamble, but one has to respect that the Rockets are really going all in on their title chase. I suppose we’ll just have to wait and see if it pays off.

Projecting 2020 NFL Free Agent Landing Spots

NFL Free Agency officially begins March 18^th, but the rumors about where players might end up have already started swirling and will continue to ramp up as the day gets closer. This year’s free agent crop is quite bountiful, especially for teams in need of a man under center. There is an unprecedented amount of starting caliber quarterbacks on the market this year, but to be quite honest we could only see a few don new uniforms next season. In fact, that’s the issue I’ll be avoiding when making my predictions. Free agency just isn’t as fun if you’re projecting half the players to re-up with their old squads, so I’ll only include free agents that are more likely than not to change their address this offseason. Since quarterbacks tend to dominate the news, I’ll start off there.

Phillip Rivers

Rivers is almost at his end, but he’s not ready to give up just yet. The 38-year-old spent 16 years as the quarterback for the Chargers, but after a disappointing year for both himself and the team as a whole, the organization decided to part ways with the old man. It’s unfortunate to see a player give so much to a team only to be cut before he can retire there, but maybe there’s still some hope for the vet. Rivers never made a Super Bowl with the Chargers, but now he’s free to sign with a contender who could give him a final chance at the ring his career deserves. After last season it may be hard to believe that Rivers can guide a contender to the promise land, especially as he battles father time. However, Rivers is only a season removed from a year in which he completed 68% of his passes and threw for 32 touchdowns against only 12 interceptions. Rivers, who’s known to be quite fiery, certainly has something left in the tank.

As I mentioned before, Rivers is looking for a team that can reasonably contend with him on the roster. With that qualification in mind, the Indianapolis Colts stand out as a nice fit for Phillip. Indianapolis was expected to contend coming into last season, but a surprising retirement from incumbent quarterback Andrew Luck, derailed those title aspirations. Jacoby Brisset stepped into the starting role and produced unimpressive results. Brisset’s failure to lock down the starting gig has left room for Rivers to join the squad. Rivers old age could present a problem, but the Colts are built to assuage those concerns. Indianapolis owned the seventh best run game and ninth best offensive line in the league last year. Those rankings get more impressive when you couple them with the fact that Brisset’s inability to push the ball down the field led teams to key in on the run more. Rivers, who is a known gunslinger, can bring balance to the Colt’s offense while also shouldering less of a load then he was expected to with the Chargers. Rivers will certainly have options in free agency, but it seems apparent that Indianapolis gives him the best chance to finish his career on a high note.

Teddy Bridgewater

Teddy Bridgewater’s career arc is odd, to say the least. Bridgewater was drafted by the Minnesota Vikings in 2014 and became a solid starter for the team. After his first couple of seasons, Bridgewater was expected to finally lead the Vikings back to the playoffs, but a horrible knee injury prior to the start of the 2016 season kept him out of football for over a year. Once recovered, Bridgewater signed a one-year deal with the New York Jets. Bridgewater only played a few preseason games for the Jets before he was traded to New Orleans. In the Big Easy, Bridgewater served as Drew Brees’ understudy and even started five games after Brees was injured last season. In the limited game action we’ve seen from Bridgewater, it’s become clear that he’s still a viable starter in this league, evidenced most obviously by his 5-0 record as the leading man last year. Now that the Saints have openly acknowledged Taysom Hill as the heir to Brees’ throne, it is time for Bridgewater to find a new home.

Interestingly enough, a good fit for Teddy Two Gloves would be the Los Angeles Chargers. Despite the team’s disappointing 5-11 record last year, they still have the pieces to contend. Several of the Chargers best players were injured for large chunks of the season. If everyone were healthy, the Chargers would have one of the most complete rosters in the league. It seems that it would be in their best interest to enter win-now mode, which would eliminate the desire to draft and groom a quarterback. Instead the team can sign Bridgewater, who is actually only 27 years old himself. Rivers struggled with turnovers last year, much to the Chargers’ detriment. Bridgewater on the other hand, is one of the most turnover averse quarterbacks in the league. In his five games last season, Bridgewater’s interception percentage was a whopping 1%, he tossed nine scores compared to only two picks. Pairing Bridgewater’s decision making with the offensive weapons the Chargers have in Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekler, seems like a recipe for an explosive and efficient offense. After all he’s been through, Bridgewater deserves a chance to shine, Los Angeles gives him the perfect opportunity.

Chris Jones

Chris Jones seems to be the prize of free agency for any team not looking for a quarterback, and for good reason. Jones is the type of player than can fit on literally any team. In Kansas City, Jones primarily played defensive tackle, but is perfectly capable of playing defensive end in a 3-4 scheme. He’s solid against the run, but really makes his name as an interior pass rusher. Last year Jones had nine sacks, an impressive number that looks even better when you realize that he only played 13 games and dealt with multiple injuries throughout the season. The year prior, Jones amassed a grand total of 15.5 sacks through a full 16 game slate. That type of interior rushing ability is rare in this league. Aaron Donald is the only other interior rusher to match those kinds of numbers, and he’s considered to be the best defensive player in the league. Add in the fact that Jones is only 25 years old, and it’s easy to see why he’s considered free agency’s big fish.

What’s interesting about Jones is that he’s openly stated that he wants to stay in Kansas City, after all he did just win a Super Bowl there, but he seems to have priced himself out of their budget. Kansas City only has $16 millon in cap space and has to save some for the inevitable mega-deal that star quarterback Patrick Mahomes is going to demand. Meanwhile, pass rushers like Jones typically sign deals around the $20 million range. A tag and trade should be a move the Chiefs look into, it’s something they pulled last year when they sent Dee Ford to the 49ers in exchange for a second-round draft pick. Perhaps the Chiefs could send Jones to another NFC west team. The Seattle Seahawks are in great need of pass rushers after only generating 28 sacks last year. Incumbent defensive tackle, Jarran Reed, is also a free agent this year, and after garnering 10.5 sacks for the Hawks in 2018, that number fell to only two sacks this year. Seattle could upgrade at the position by trading their first-round selection to the Chiefs in exchange for Jones. Seattle typically tends to trade their first pick anyway; they’ve done so for the past eight years. Not to mention, these two teams swapped a pass rusher for picks just last year when Seattle traded Frank Clark to Kansas City in exchange for several picks. Combine the two team’s needs with their familiarity, and it does seem likely that Chris Jones will be on his way to Seattle.

A.J. Green

Last season was an off year for A.J. Green, literally. An ankle injury that was only supposed to keep Green out for a couple weeks, ended up keeping him out the entire year. Green likely could’ve returned at some point, but simply saw no reason to rejoin a Cincinnati squad that went 2-14 last year. Instead, Green sat out in order to ensure his health for the 2020 season. Green is 31 years old, meaning this is likely his last opportunity to sign a large contract, and after playing for such a mediocre Cincinnati team for so many years, he might also want to sign with a team that can actually compete. When healthy, Green is a true number one receiver, he can stretch the field and thanks to his 6’4” height he can also win 50/50 balls. Green has topped 1,000 yards in six of his eight seasons and has averaged 14.8 yards per reception throughout his career. Teams in need of a top dog receiver are sure to look Green’s way come March 18^th.

The Buffalo Bills just might happen to be that team. Last offseason the Bills attempted to acquire former NFL wide receiver Antonio Brown to be their number one option. Brown didn’t end up joining the team, and in retrospect it looks like the Bills dodged a bullet. However, Buffalo still needed a number one option for young signal caller Josh Allen to throw to. The team decided to sign John Brown, who went on to have a productive 1,060-yard season. Despite that solid production, Brown still doesn’t profile as a team’s X receiver. Bringing in Green would give Allen the perfect target to throw to. Green is still a downfield threat, much like Brown, but he can also make up for Allen’s inconsistent throwing accuracy. It’s easy to imagine the canon-armed Allen throwing bombs downfield to the big bodied A.J. Green for huge chunk plays. I’m sure that image is somewhere in the mind of the Bills’ organization, and I’d bet that they hope to make it a reality.

Byron Jones

The Dallas Cowboys have a lot of talent to re-sign this offseason, it doesn’t appear that they’ll be able to keep everyone in house. With quarterback Dak Prescott looking for a mega-deal and wide receiver Amari Cooper also up for a new contract, it seems that Byron Jones would be the odd man out. Jones isn’t the biggest free agent name out there, he’s not even the most well-known Jones, but he is a solid defensive back who has shown some versatility in coverage. Jones started his career as a safety and has transitioned to more of a cornerback role but has been moved around the defense at times. Jones has shown that he’s a better corner, but the added versatility of knowing how to play the safety spot is valuable. In his two years primarily playing corner, Jones has allowed a 52.8% completion percentage on balls thrown his way, while also allowing only five touchdowns. Jones doesn’t have gaudy interception numbers, but he’s clearly shown that he’s capable of being a team’s number one cover man.

After getting absolutely torched by Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs in the playoffs last season, it’s become clear that the Houston Texans are a team in need of Jones’ services. Houston’s defense as a whole ranked 19^th in the league, the pass defense in particular was quite porous. The Texans allowed opponents to throw for 4,276 yards and 33 touchdowns on a 64% completion percentage, all while only picking off 12 balls. The playoff game against Mahomes and the Chiefs exposed Houston’s secondary on a national level. After going up 24-0, the Texans ended up losing the game with a final score of 31-51. Mahomes finished the day with 321 passing yards and 5 touchdowns in an incredible comeback effort. Three of the Texans top cornerbacks are hitting free agency this offseason. Given their performance last season, it looks to be in Houston’s best interest to cut bait with them and upgrade at the position by signing Byron Jones.

NBA All-Star Break Breakout Predictions

The NBA season is incredibly long, each team plays a grand total of 82 regular season games over the course of six months. The games also almost never stop, unlike in the NFL where you have a whole week to prep for your next opponent, NBA teams have a max of about three days in between games. All this means that it can be hard for players and coaches to find a moment to reflect on their season so far and see what they can do to improve. However, there is the NBA All-Star break.

The NBA All-Star Break is a six-day pause in the action that gives teams that moment they were looking for. Once games start up again, we’re likely to see a few breakout teams and players who used the time off to their advantage. It could be a young team that’s ironing out all the kinks to the whole NBA thing, a recently traded player with a new opportunity to shine, or even a contender optimizing their team before the playoffs. These improvements likely won’t alter the playoff landscape too drastically, but they do offer signs of hope for next year.

Here are a couple players and teams that could breakout during the final stretch of the season.

Memphis Grizzlies

When the Memphis Grizzlies drafted Jaren Jackson Jr. in 2018, it was the beginning of a rebuild that would take at least a few years to come to fruition. Thanks to Ja Morant, the Grizzlies’ first round pick in the very next draft, the rebuild is years ahead of schedule. Morant has given the Grizzlies a bona fide floor general who ensures that the offense is putting up points even when he’s having a cold night. Morant leads all rookies with an average of 7.1 assists per game, a number that also ranks 12^th among all active NBA players. Ja’s passing chops are already on full display and he hasn’t even completed an entire NBA season.

Other young guns have also chipped into the Grizzlies’ ascension. The aforementioned Jaren Jackson Jr. is the second leading scorer on the team and has become a valuable offensive piece as a stretch big. Jackson is sinking 39% of his treys on 6.3 attempts per game, this kind three-point marksmanship pairs extremely well with Morant’s downhill style of play. Toss in highflyer, Brandon Clarke, and savvy 3-and-D wing, Dillon Brooks, and you’ve got a young nucleus on the rise.

The team has already gone on a bit of a run prior to the All-Star Break, winning eight of their last ten games and positioning themselves in the eight seed of a loaded Western Conference. That run should continue coming out of the break, especially if they start hitting from deep. Over that 10 game stretch Memphis only made 31% of their threes, imagine if they were making shots.

Victor Oladipo and the Indiana Pacers

On January 23^rd, 2019, Victor Oladipo suffered a horrific leg injury that kept him out of games for an entire year. He made his season debut only a few weeks ago on January 29^th. His rust has been noticeable. Prior to his injury, Oladipo averaged 18.8 points, 5.2 assists and 5.6 rebounds per game, while also being voted an All-Star. Through the seven games he’s played this year, his numbers have taken a nosedive, averaging 11.1 points, 2.9 assists and 2 rebounds. Even worse his effective field goal percentage is the lowest of his career at 38%. Oladipo’s style of play relies a lot on his athleticism, he’s at his best when he can attack the basket with fury. The rust he’s showing right now comes in the form of settling for mid-range and three-point shots due to lack of burst.

Oladipo can use the break to regain his confidence and a little of his athleticism. Typically, when a player comes back from an injury like Oladipo’s there can be a little bit of anxiety when it comes to pushing the injured area too hard. This anxiety usually goes away after a while, and the player gets used to playing again. After coming out of seven games unscathed, Oladipo can feel confidence in his leg again and really start pushing the pace like he used to.

If Oladipo can get right, the Pacers will have an All-Star level talent commanding their egalitarian offense once again. His attacking style will draw defenders away from the perimeter and allow Oladipo to kick out to teammates that are surprisingly adept at shooting threes despite the team being last in three-point attempts per game. The increase in attacks will hopefully generate more three-point attempts, which will in turn boost Indiana’s 21^st ranked offense. They say defense wins championships, but you win the game by scoring more points.

Philadelphia 76ers

Coming into the 2019-2020 NBA season, the Philadelphia 76ers were the favorites to represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals. Currently, they own the fifth seed in the east and likely won’t catch the first seed Milwaukee Bucks, who have already amassed 46 wins. The idea was that the unmatched length of Philly’s starting five would overwhelm opponents defensively. The offseason acquisitions of Jason Richardson and Al Horford ensured that no member of the starting five would be shorter than 6’5”.

However, the 76ers defense hasn’t been as historic as expected, in fact their defense only ranks 4^th in the NBA. Meanwhile, their offense sits at 22^nd in the league and has noticeable issues with spacing, especially since their All-Star duo of Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons are both better scorers in the paint. At times it can feel like the only thing keeping the 76ers competitive is their home court fans, their home record is a league best 25-2, which means their away record is an awful 9-19. Clearly something needs to change.

76ers coach Brett Brown realized his team needed a shakeup and in their last game prior to the All-Star break, he benched Al Horford in favor of three-point specialist Furkan Korkmaz. The team also acquired shooters who could come off the bench when they traded for Alec Burkes and Glenn Robinson. The moves have worked so far. In that last game against the Los Angeles Clippers, Philly got one of the best combined performances of the season from their All-Star duo, while also getting valuable bench minutes from Horford. The respect that the Clippers gave to Korkmaz on the perimeter helped open lanes for Simmons and Embiid to attack, which was likely what coach Brown had in mind.

Even if the lineup change doesn’t stick, this 76ers team is clearly motivated to win. They’re making a concerted effort to be better, and for a team that has been criticized for their lack of effort, that’s a huge positive. Expect Philly to show a little more heart down the stretch.

Juancho Hernangomez

The Minnesota Timberwolves were incredibly active during the week of the NBA trade deadline. They swapped out seven members of their old squad with seven newcomers. The headliner being All-Star guard D’Angelo Russell. However, there were other notable names like Malik Beasly and Juancho Hernangomez. Beasly was a valuable contributor off the bench for the Nuggets. Hernangomez on the other hand, never really got a chance to prove what he can do. In his four years in the NBA, Hernangomez has yet to average over 20 minutes per game over the course of a whole season. Since being traded to Minnesota, Hernangomez is playing 30 minutes per game as a starter, and is averaging 15 points, 6 rebounds and 1.3 assists per game. All these numbers are career highs for Hernangomez, and it might be because this has been his first real opportunity to show what he can do.

Hernangomez fits extremely well in what Minnesota already likes to do. They’ve embraced big man shooting by allowing Karl-Anthony Towns, their franchise centerpiece, to set himself up on the perimeter and rain down treys on opposing defenses. Towns is shooting a career high 7.9 threes per game. The Timberwolves as a team are also third in the league in three-point attempts per game. It’s already clear that Hernangomez has been given the green light, he’s shooting 42.9% from deep on 4.7 attempts per game, both also career highs.

Throw in the trade for Russell, a guard that can create open shots for his teammates by driving to the basket and kicking out, and you’ve got a recipe for offensive success. And for the first time in his career, Hernangomez will actually be given an opportunity to contribute to that success.

Super Early Super Bowl Picks

Yes, I know. It’s only been about a week since the Kansas City Chiefs won Super Bowl LIV. Shouldn’t I let Chiefs Kingdom bask in the glory of being world champions? I should, so congratulations to them for pulling off an incredibly entertaining playoff run that featured three double digit comebacks, all headed by the NFL’s best quarterback, Patrick Mahomes. However, the NFL moves fast and there are already odds released for next year’s Super Bowl. I’ll follow suit and make my picks now, when it is entirely too early.

It is both somewhat easy and incredibly difficult to predict who will make the Super Bowl. There are so many variables to consider, especially with the draft and free agency still months away. Even with all these unknowns there are still obvious contenders who will almost assuredly find themselves in playoff position next season. The Chiefs are a great example of this. Kansas City’s 2018 season came to an end in the AFC Conference Championship, a game away from the Super Bowl. One could’ve easily predicted that they would make the Super Bowl the next year given their superstar signal caller, talented position players like Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, and legendary head coach Andy Reid. In fact, a lot of people did.

However, like I said, predicting who makes the Super Bowl is also very hard. We can use the other Super Bowl representative, the San Francisco 49ers, as an example here. San Francisco’s 2018 season ended with a 4-12 record; they didn’t resemble a contender at all. Their starting quarterback, Jimmy Garoppolo, was limited to only three games due to an ACL tear, but the rest of the team was still unimpressive. Come 2019, and the 49ers are damn near unbeatable. They finish with a 13-3 record and a Super Bowl appearance. They seemingly came out of nowhere. Sure, one could look at Garoppolo’s return, the addition of Nick Bosa, and the fact that they were a trendy pick to make the 2018 Super Bowl as reasons to believe they would represent the NFC in 2019. However, that still would’ve been considered a little far fetched.

The Picks

Okay, enough with the backstory, let’s get to the picks. Drum roll please… I, Xavier Zamarron, am picking the Seattle Seahawks and the Pittsburgh Steelers to play in Super Bowl LV.

Seattle Seahawks

Picking Seattle isn’t too much of a reach given their 2019 success. They made the divisional round behind an MVP level campaign from quarterback Russell Wilson and have been playoff mainstays since Wilson entered the league in 2012. Sure, their defense left a lot to be desired. They only garnered 28 sacks, 31^st in the league, and had some troubles stopping the run, all of which resulted in the group being rated 22^nd in the league by Pro Football Reference. However, Seattle has ample cap space to sign a much needed pass rusher while also retaining incumbent star Jadeveon Clowney. Clowney profiled as the team’s top rusher in 2019, but he dealt with a bevy of core injuries during the season and never was an elite sack artist in the first place. Adding another rusher opposite Clowney would give some teeth to Seattle’s rush which would in turn ease the pressure on the rest of the unit.

Seattle’s offense also looks to improve in 2020. Wilson is still in the prime of his career and will have the solid receiving duo of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett at his disposal. Not to mention he’ll have a healthy stable of running backs to hand off to. The tail end of the 2019 season saw Seattle’s formidable run game dissolve with the injuries of starter Chris Carson and valuable rotation piece, Rashad Penny. Seattle was forced to rely on sixth round pick Travis Homer and the recently unretired Marshawn Lynch, to carry their run game during the playoffs. Of course, it didn’t work, evidenced by the fact that Wilson was the team’s leading rusher in it’s two playoff games. With Carson and Penny back in the fold, the potential addition of a premier pass rusher, and the continued dominance of Russell Wilson, the Seattle Seahawks profile as a legitimate contender and are my pick to represent the NFC in Super Bowl LV.

Pittsburgh Steelers

While picking Seattle doesn’t stretch the imagination too far, picking Pittsburgh is considerably less popular. The Steelers capped off their 2019 season with a mediocre 8-8 record. Coming into the season they were labeled as contenders, and featured the solid offensive trio of Ben Roethlisberger, James Conner, and Juju Smith-Schuster. Expectations quickly derailed as Roethlisberger was injured in only the second week of the season against, coincidentally, the Seattle Seahawks. Pittsburgh relied on a pair of young quarterbacks in Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges for the rest of the season. The fact that they utilized two quarterbacks instead of just one is evidence enough that neither was suited for an actual starting gig. Not to mention both Conner and Smith-Schuster dealt with injuries throughout the season. All this considered, Pittsburgh’s 8-8 record can actually be seen as a positive.

While their established stars spent time in the medical room, a lot of the Steelers’ depth players got a chance to shine. Guys like James Washington, Dionte Johnson, and Jaylen Samuels became productive players that could potentially contribute to a potent offense. Pittsburgh’s defense also became quite formidable, even with star defensive end Stephon Tuitt out for most of the season. Pittsburgh’s pass rushing duo of T.J. Watt and Bud Dupree helped the team lead the league in sacks with 54. While Dupree is likely to depart from the team in free agency, Watt and the return of Tuitt should keep Pittsburgh’s pass rush stable. Rookie linebacker Devin Bush and in season acquisition Minkah Fitzpatrick, two other key players from last year, will likely improve next season thanks to familiarity with the Steelers’ system. The two already helped Pittsburgh lead the league in takeaways with 38. Combine Roethlisberger’s return with a young and improving defense, and you have a dark horse contender who I’m picking to represent the AFC in Super Bowl LV.

Howdy Y’all!

My name is Xavier Zamarron, and for the past 10 years I have been an avid fan of both the NBA and NFL. As a kid, the dream was that one day I could play in one of these leagues. That’s what every kid dreams of right? Well at a young age I realized that my odds were low, and even lower thanks to my genes. I decided that if I can’t play in either league, I want to at least be involved in them. I combined my writing skills and love for the sports into a new dream of becoming a sports analyst. I’ve become well versed in what makes teams succeed through watching film, scouting players and analyzing stats. I am fully capable of making correct predictions about games, seasons, players, etc., and with this blog I hope to prove my expertise to any fan or analyst by writing articles that make bold statements about the sports landscape.

When I say “bold” I mean predictions that aren’t very popular, but are at least somewhat realistic. There’s already a plethora of sports writers out there, which means there is a general consensus about certain topics. For example: in this NBA season there are a couple of championship favorites, the Lakers, Clippers, and Bucks. This means that countless articles have already been written about what makes these teams tick. I have no name and zero clout when it comes to sports writing, so why would anyone listen to what I have to say about the Lakers? That’s why I must zig while everyone zags.

The hope is that my 10 years of closely analyzing these two leagues will lead to at least a few “bold” predictions becoming true. It is only then that people will see that I know what I’m talking about. My opinions and predictions will hopefully gain some respect, and maybe I even get an internship at an actual sports media company. We all have to start somewhere right? Well I’m starting here. Welcome to XDog’s Sports Blog!

Follow me on Twitter for updates on the blog, and other opinions that I can’t flesh out into entire articles.